Why Democratic Support Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2009
More Americans are identifying as Democratic than at any time since the first years of the Obama administration, less than a month before the midterm elections.The latest quarterly poll from Gallup shows 50 percent of Americans asked either said they were a Democrat or leaned that way, compared to 39 percent for the Republican Party. The share of those on the left has been steadily rising since the end of 2024, while the number of those saying they were Republican or Republican-leaning has fallen.The result for the Democratic Party is potentially surprising, with the party having struggled to win voters over in other national polling in recent months, and it remains to be seen if this overall sentiment is transferred to results in November."The party lean category is a good indicator of vote intentions," Stephen Ansolabehere, professor of government at Harvard University, told Newsweek on Monday. "Generally, when it’s a good year for a party the proportion of people who lean in the direction of the eventual winner of the election goes up in October and November. Come January or February that category returns to its original levels."A Democratic National Committee spokesperson said in a statement to Newsweek, “All across the country, Americans are rejecting Trump and Republicans’ toxic agenda of sky high prices, rampant corruption, and endless chaos. Heading into the election, Democrats are confident, but not complacent. We are all gas, no brakes to reach every voter, expand the map, and win up and down the ballot this November.” Meanwhile, Republican National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek: “National polls always underestimate support for Republicans and liberal rags like Newsweek always take the bait. Republicans are united in exposing the far-left's extreme agenda and will leave it all on the table to defy history in November." Democratic Support Reached Obama-Era LevelParty affiliation, like politics more widely, had been ever-changing, but with the two parties still holding most of the power in U.S. Congress, where Americans fall even if they consider themselves independent matters.In the last quarter of 2024, in the wake of the presidential election that saw President Donald Trump reelected to the White House, Republicans led the Gallup polling with 47 percent compared to 43 percent identifying as Democratic. The lead did not last very long, with the parties being tied the next quarter.More Americans have been identifying as Democratic or leaning that way in the months since, leading up to the 50 percent figure seen in Monday's poll. The last time the Democratic side of the poll was as high was in 2009, during Obama's first term in the White House.The numbers do become more nuanced when including independents, who currently sit at 45 percent, but Democrats sit at 5 points higher than Republicans, at 30 percent, in the latest survey.Gallup carries out the survey every quarter, with the latest conducted among a random sample of 3,000 U.S. adults age 18 and older, living across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., with a +2 percent margin of error.While the poll is a likely morale boost for the Democratic National Committee, history can offer a warning to the party, with polls that underestimated Republicans in key states leading to surprise GOP victories.A long-running core issue is transferring those supporters into actual voters at the ballot box. Those with a favorable view of the Democratic Party still may not want to vote for a particular candidate covering their district or state, and that could mean the difference between the Democrats taking control of Congress or the GOP maintaining its grip.Why Are More Americans Identifying as Democrats?As Ansolabehere said, the shift may indicate a Democratic win next month, and part of the reason for that could be not that Americans are more supportive of Democrats, but rather increasingly unhappy with Trump and the GOP-controlled legislature.The cost of living has become a key issue for voters this year—as it was when the Democrats last saw their Gallup numbers peak in 2009 at the height of the recession. At the time, there was hope that then-President Barack Obama was working on fixing the issues his predecessor was seen as having played a part in causing, and the newly elected president was still riding a wave of popularity that led to his 2008 election win.Recent polling has shown Trump's disapproval rating on the economy has equaled President George W. Bush's handling of economy at the end of his term, despite the current president's efforts to downplay rising gas and grocery prices."I think it is yet another datapoint that the public has soured on Republicans and President Trump. It is consistent with what we have seen in other trends such as presidential approval, special election results, and primary turnout," Josh Clinton, professor who covers public opinion at Vanderbilt University, told Newsweek. "Even though views of the Democratic Party have not much improved according to many polls since 2024, the fact that people are increasingly likely to prefer Democrats over Republicans shows just how toxic the Republican brand has become to formerly independent and swing voters."The fact that it has reached a level similar to where it was in 2009 is telling given that both times were instances in which the public seemingly blamed Republicans for failing to deal with what voters thought was an economy that was not working for them."Voters cast their ballots inside the Arlington County Courthouse on September 18 in Arlington, Virginia. | Tom Brenner/Getty ImagesWhat This Means for the MidtermsGallup's findings are not an isolated indicator. Democrats also hold a substantial lead when Americans are asked which party they would support for Congress, strengthening the argument the party is entering the final month of the midterms campaign with a favorable national image.Analysts and pollsters remain cautious about making any definitive predictions about the results in a month's time, but election simulations, including from RacetotheWH, which looks at voting patterns, polling and other indicators, has given Democrats an 87 percent chance of winning the House. The Senate remained more competitive, at 73 percent.At the same point before the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 41 House seats and took control of the chamber, the party led the generic ballot average by 7.2 points, compared to 8.3 points this year, per RealClearPolling.A number of races have shifted toward the Democrats in recent weeks, with early voting underway—something Trump has already claimed is corrupt as he heads on a tour of key GOP seats to campaign, despite not being on the ballot himself. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.Update 10/5/26, 6:41 p.m. ET: This article was updated to reflect the Democrats' generic congressional ballot lead as 8.3 percent.Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Edward T. CumminsIndependent Journalism Needs You!Become a member for a fresh perspective—ad-free reading, access to our editors, and insight beyond the conventional wisdom.
